Today I will talk about a topic that can be either very clichéd or very trendy, depending on how we see it: the beginning of President Trump's second term in the United States. A presidential campaign was conducted with many promises, and now it's time to start fulfilling them. I don't want to talk specifically about political issues, but rather about their consequences and impacts, for better or worse, on labor issues.
So far, I see that tariff threats are a means to force other countries to do what the United States wants, but the issue of deportations doesn't seem to be a means to achieve something; rather, it seems to be an end in itself. That is, it is not linked to anything other than sending people who live in the United States without special permission or residency back to their country, and they are called undocumented. Is it right or wrong? Initially, it is right because it is pursuing an illegal act, but I don't think the consequences are being measured correctly, although so far, no one knows what will happen.
One of the factors that affect labor issues more than anything else is fear. Fear in workers substantially lowers productivity, significantly increases absenteeism and turnover, and puts the business's survival at serious risk.
In this case, we can see that the fear instilled by mass deportation in the United States is putting at risk a certain number of businesses that depend on cheaper labor, which are commonly undocumented workers.
I would like to see it in a somewhat simplistic way: are undocumented workers voters? Well, no. And do those who vote want undocumented workers in the United States? Well, no. But these can be the lowest-level workers who are the ones undocumented workers take jobs from.
But this is still a lot of speculation on my part. There are other examples; Mexico is one of them. The Morena party, starting with former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, won the presidency of Mexico in 2018. Just like in the United States, campaign promises must be fulfilled.
Some of those promises include financial support for the most vulnerable people, stopping the largest projects of previous governments, and creating new ones, among others. These promises are being fulfilled, but how sustainable are they? They led Morena to win another presidential election, and the effects of the economic crisis have not been seen, or at least not clearly.
By fulfilling these promises in Mexico, much of the investment and growth of the country has been put at risk. It is presumed that there is growth, but what is this growth or lack of decline due to? I believe we have to thank nearshoring, which was larger than we expected. And what caused nearshoring? A political dispute between the United States and China. And is it over? Well, no, and more are coming. In the end, what will happen? No one knows.
I would summarize that the political element has much more power than it should have. I believe there should be an internal balance between the political and business elements. We must remember that governments do not create jobs; companies do. Therefore, the politician's job is to make the path smoother and faster for companies and, in turn, ensure they take care of their workers. Something like that.
Manuel González
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